There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people with parlays. They will tout win rates similar to many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some type of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. 123win are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that you will find the majority of these losers are made of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly high percentage. Many table games and slots provide a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a couple of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. There are also steps that can be taken to decrease the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome over time.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the end. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. The reason being most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that most bettors do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this implies a minimum of 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous amount of wagers to put with such a high house edge. For example, if you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that may help you over time. First of all, the best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points less than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.