"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those instead of parlays. Some of you might not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and when it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a type of "if" bet where you bet on the first team, and when it wins without a doubt double on the second team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you would like to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the first game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the next game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the next game. Because of this, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books won't allow you to fill in the second game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a great deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. In the event that you split however the loser may be the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This type of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you intend to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing $110 once the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It computes in this manner. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses without decrease in the win when both teams win. In nhà cái 789WIN "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it does have the benefit of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether or not you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he could be not betting the second game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that the next time someone tells you that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by a winner with a positive expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of which you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you pull out your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a good substitute for the parlay in case you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the point that we make the next bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when one of our combinations will come in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or higher will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will under the total. As we have previously seen, if you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are one to the other, but the proven fact that they're co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one out of your two. Each one of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that whenever, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at the very least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. That a BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."